Breckenridge Local Updates, Real Estate News & Market Trends

You’ll find our blog to be a wealth of information, covering everything from local market statistics and home values to community happenings. That’s because we care about the community and want to help you find your place in it. Please reach out if you have any questions at all. We’d love to talk with you!

Oct. 20, 2021

Breckenridge Grand Vacations Gondola Lot Development

Breckenridge Grand Vacations Gondola lot developmentThe master plan for the proposed Breckenridge Grand Vacations development was approved at its final hearing with the Breckenridge Planning Commission on Tuesday, Oct. 19.
Breckenridge Planning Commission agenda packet/Courtesy rendering

Breckenridge planning commission approved plan submitted by Breckenridge Grand Vacations to the develop the Gondola and Gold Rush parking lots. The development plan now goes to the Town Council for approval. 

Read the full Summit Daily article here

 

Oct. 20, 2021

State of the Market September Statistics

The market continues to be active and inventory low due to the quick absorption rate. Remember that low inventory does not directly mean there are not many sales. If homes come to market and go under contract quickly then at any given time there will be a lot of properties under contract and not that many actively for sale. For example, on the 20th October 2021 in Summit County there were 136 active residential listings in Summit County and 611 residential properties under contract. 

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES - SEPTEMBER 2021

Single family home sales September 2021

TOWNHOME AND CONDO SALES - SEPTEMBER 2021

Multi Family property sales September 2021

July 21, 2021

Summit County 2021 Summer Music

July 2021

 
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May 29, 2021

Summit County Real Estate Market Updates - March 2021

Please note that Land Title data comes from actual recorded transactions at the County Clerk and Recorder’s Office for that particular month. The information is not directly related to MLS data. The data is an unofficial tabulation of Summit County Records that are believed to be reasonably accurate.

  • Market Analysis by Area for April 2021: There were a total of 231 transactions and $217,485,200 in monetary volume. The average transaction price for all 18 reported areas, plus Deed Restricted transactions, was $972,821. The average residential price was $1,065,545  and the average residential PSF was $641.
  • Market Analysis by Area YTD 2021 (4 Months): There were a total of 802 transactions totaling $706,668,332 in monetary volume. Average transaction price was $912,781, average residential price was $1,004,737 and average residential PPF was $615.
  • Market Snapshot for FULL Years 2021 vs 2020:  Average Indicators for $: Single Family +14%, Multi- Family +12% and Vacant Land -4%. Median Indicators for Single Family +14%, Multi- Family +12% and Vacant Land +9%.
  • Market Analysis % Change YTD April 2021 (*last April 2020- Pandemic Shut Down): Monetary volume in April 2021 was up 242% from April 2020. Transactions were up 151% from April 2020.  YTD 2021 $ volume is pacing 91% up and transactions are up 65% from YTD 2020.
  • Residential Cost Analysis:  Residential volume in April had 191 transactions with $203,519,000 gross volume. There were 72 properties that sold for $1M and above in April. There were 63 Single Family, 128 Multi-Family and 13 Vacant Land transactions. 
  • Average Price History by Type-YTD 2021: Average price for residential Single Family: $1,586,128, Multi- Family: $676,626 and Vacant Land: $352,941.
  • Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison 2021-2020-2019: YTD 2021, there have been 632 residential transactions and $634,993,962 gross $ volume with 202 properties selling for over $1M. In 2020, there were 387 transactions with $320,514,723 gross $ volume with 102 properties selling for over $1M. In 2019, there were 443 transactions with $372,849,796 gross $ volume with 104 properties selling for over $1M.
  • Top Lender Analysis April 2021: There were 662 loans in April,157 loans were related to sales, there were 367 refis and 138 loans were timeshare related. And, 32% of the real estate closings were cash transactions. 
  • Market Highlights:  Please see page 11 of the Market Analysis- Note the higher priced sale in 2021 in Breckenridge at $5,250,000. The top priced PSF was in Breckenridge in Shock Hill at $1,460. 
  • Purchaser Profile Abstract:  There were 75 upper end sales in April 2021. Our buyers for real estate transactions for April 2021: Local buyers at 25%, with the Front Range demographic at 46% and 29% are out of state buyers with 0% International. There is a graph included showing demographic trends through 2013 on page 17.

 

FULL REPORT - CLICK HERE

May 28, 2021

Mortgage Rates Dip Back Below 3%

Ultra-low mortgage rates returned this week, with lenders offering home buyers and refinancers a chance once again to lock in a rate below 3%. But the National Association of REALTORS® warns that these low rates in the 2% range won’t last much longer, and mortgage rates likely will edge up soon. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.95% this week, Freddie Mac reports.

“Mortgage rates are continuing to offer many homeowners the potential to refinance and increase their monthly cash flow,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Homeowners who refinanced their 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in 2020 saved more than $2,800 annually, Khater notes. “Substantial opportunity continues to exist today, as nearly $2 trillion in conforming mortgages have the ability to refinance and reduce their interest rate by at least half a percentage point.”

Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending May 27:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.95%, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 3% average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 3.15%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.27%, with an average 0.6 point, falling from last week’s 2.29% average. A year ago, 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.62%.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.59%, with an average 0.2 point, unchanged from last week. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.13%.

Freddie Mac reports average commitment rates along with average points to better reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining a mortgage.

Article Linked Here

May 7, 2021

State of the Market – May 2021

State of the Market – May 2021

 

Having navigated a successful winter season for the ski area and town, we are now progressing into what used to be mud season….. this ‘shoulder’ season has become anything but that with continued popularity for visitors and real estate activity alike.

 

Having recently migrated into level green, we are setting up for a busy summer with few restrictions and the enviable position of being able to enjoy all that the mountains have to offer as well as selling you into your mountain dream home.

 

It has been a crazy few months, on top of an unexpected 2020 for real estate. As many of you already know, the continued desirability for property in mountain communities continues to be fueled not only by people wishing to secure their slice of mountain living, but also, by the general population growth and popularity of Colorado. When I first moved here in 1994 the population of the state was 3.6m, now we are nearing 5.9m people. This population growth has obviously been very much focused on the front range and it is here that the high desirability and low inventory of housing started about 5 years ago. Here in Summit and Park Counties, since the new year we have also been experiencing multiple offers on lisitings, over list price closings, appraisal gap clauses and more. The low inventory and high demand has certainly made for a challenging market and with this being said, it is important to make sure certain topics are understood and discussed.

 

Are we looking at a housing bubble?

In past housing bubbles there has been some fundamental flaws in the market that spawned the housing bubble to burst. Having talked with a number of mortgage lenders, who have all firmly stated that it would not be as a result of poor loans, it can be said that from a finance sector point of view the real estate market is on sound footings. Strong demand is slated to continue for the foreseeable future and with limited inventory and very little new construction or vacant lots available, pricing will be driven by simple supply and demand metrics. Unless there is a much broader seismic shift in the US or global economy, my view is that Summit and Park counties will continue in an appreciating trend and demand will be strong. Read this article.

 

Is now a good time to buy?

I always start the answer to this question with how long are you planning to hold the asset? Short term buy and sell plays are speculation, and whilst the returns can be impressive, such as a small duplex that sold in Sept 2020 for $890,000 and just recently re-sold for $1,123,500 – 20% in about 7 months, the downside comes into play as well. Longer term (circa 7-10 years) affords you the opportunity to ride out any variance in the market and also choose when to sell. I have had too many conversations with clients three years ago that were waiting for the market to “catch a cold” and wish they had pulled the trigger then. The long-term trend in the past and the future for real estate in our market is favorable.

 

What about pricing?

Inflation is definitely a buzz word at the moment. We are certainly seeing it in real estate pricing and also in the cost of construction and building material costs. The longer that these higher pricing levels are sustained, the more they become the new norm. My view is that we are setting new property pricing standards that will be hard to retract from. With much stricter lending practices and owners who are well placed to service the debt, the prices we are seeing will be the new reality. Obviously, as mentioned in the previous paragraph, if the wider national or global economy takes a turn, we could well see a retraction in the market. The problem with waiting for this is that no doubt everything takes a downturn, including your income, purchasing power and the willingness of banks to lend at such favorable rates.

 

In conclusion.

I would not be telling the truth if I said I have not struggled with some aspects of our market over the last 12 months….. the reality is that we are not isolated in this trend. I have had too many discussions with clients in Denver, Florida, Los Angeles etc to think that this is a unique position we are in. In the short term, we are set to have an active summer of selling. In the medium term inventory will continue to be restricted and demand high. In the longer term there is much more uncertainty, however this uncertainty can be mitigated by making sure you have a longer time horizon for ownership in the real estate market.

 

Stay healthy and I hope to see you in the mountains soon! Please do offer your feedback.....

May 3, 2021

Summit County Statistics for March 2021

  • Market Analysis by Area for March 2021: There were a total of 260 transactions and $226,309,300 in monetary volume. The average transaction price for all 18 reported areas, plus Deed Restricted transactions, was $903,591. Average residential price was $1,001,967 and average residential PSF was $618.
  • Market Analysis by Area YTD 2021 (4 Months): Year-to-date there were a total of 571 transactions totaling $489,183,132 in monetary volume. Average transaction price was $888,341, average residential price was $978,401 and average residential PPF was $603.
  • Market Snapshot for FULL Years 2021 vs 2020:  
    • Average Indicators for $: 
      • Single Family +11%
      • Multi- Family +7%
      • Vacant Land -7%
    • Median Indicators for:
      • Single Family +12%
      • Multi- Family +9% 
      • Vacant Land +8%
  • Market Analysis % Change YTD March 2021 (*last March 2020- Pandemic Shut Down- March 15): Monetary volume in March 2021 was up 127% from March 2020. Transactions were up 95% from March 2020.  YTD $ volume is pacing 59% up and transactions are up 45% from YTD 2020.
  • Residential Cost Analysis:  Residential volume in March had 196 transactions with $196,385,600 gross volume. There were 62 properties that sold for $1M and above in March. There were 75 Single Family, 121 Multi-Family and 25 Vacant Land transactions. 
  • Average Price History by Type-YTD 2021: Average price for residential Single Family: $1,533,466, Multi- Family: $646,569 and Vacant Land: $342,075.
  • Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison 2021-2020-2019: YTD 2021, there were 441 residential transactions and $431,474,962 gross $ volume with 130 properties selling for over $1M. In 2020, there were 309 transactions with $265,464,100 gross $ volume with 87 properties selling for over $1M. In 2019, 309 transactions with $256,406,796 gross $ volume with 69 properties selling for over $1M.
  • Top Lender Analysis March 2021: There were 823 loans in March,169 loans were related to sales, there were 462 Refi's and 192 loans were timeshare related. 35% of the real estate closings were cash transactions. 
  • Market Highlights:  Please see page 11 of the Market Analysis and note the higher priced sale in 2021 in the Highlands in Breckenridge at $5,295,000. The top priced PSF was in Breckenridge at Four O'Clock Condos at $1,339. 
  • Purchaser Profile Abstract:  There were 69 upper-end sales in March 2021. Our buyers for real estate transactions for March 2021: Local buyers at 18%, with the Front Range demographic at 47% and 35% are out-of-state buyers with 0% International. There is a graph included showing demographic trends through 2013 on page 17.
  • Land Title New Development Summary: Page 18 shows all the new construction each month, there were 21 in March compared to 14 in February 2021.

FULL REPORT - CLICK HERE

April 7, 2021

Latest market news April 2021

Please note that Land Title data comes from actual recorded transactions at the County Clerk and Recorder’s Office for that particular month. The information is not directly related to MLS data. The data is an unofficial tabulation of Summit County Records that are believed to be reasonably accurate. Data Source - Land Title Guarantee Company

  • Market Analysis by Area for February 2021: There were a total of 151 transactions and $132,914,988 in monetary volume. The average transaction price for all 18 reported areas, plus Deed Restricted transactions, was $923,287. The average residential price was $1,011,617 and the average residential PSF was $588.
  • Market Analysis by Area YTD 2021 (2 Months): There were a total of 311 transactions totaling $262,873,832 in monetary volume. Average transaction price was $875,684, average residential price was $959,548 and average residential PPF was $591.
  • Market Snapshot for FULL Years 2021 vs 2020:  Average Indicators for $: Single Family +6%, Multi- Family +10% and Vacant Land -13%. Median Indicators for Single Family -2%, Multi- Family +12% and Vacant Land +5%.
  • Market Analysis % Change YTD February 2021: Monetary volume in February 2021 was up 23% from February 2020. Transactions were up 20% from February 2020.  YTD $ volume is pacing 27% up and transactions are up 20% from YTD 2020.
  • Residential Cost Analysis:  Residential volume in February had 118 transactions with $119,370,862 gross volume. There were 34 properties that sold for $1M and above in February  There were 42 Single Family, 76 Multi-Family and 14 Vacant Land transactions. 
  • Average Price History by Type-YTD 2021: Average price for residential Single Family: $1,465,299, Multi- Family: $665,887 and Vacant Land: $322,203.
  • Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison 2021-2020-2019: YTD 2021, there were 245 residential transactions and $235,089,362 gross $ volume with 68 properties selling for over $1M. In 2020, there were 209 transactions with $175,227,700 gross $ volume with 58 properties selling for over $1M. In 2019, there were 211 transactions with $172,639,219 gross $ volume with 48 properties selling for over $1M.
  • Top Lender Analysis February 2021: There were 633 loans in February. Of those 96 loans were related to sales, there were 341 REFI's and 196 loans were timeshare related. Thirty-six percent of the real estate closings were cash transactions. 
  • Purchaser Profile Abstract:  There were 36 upper end sales in February 2021 compared to 37 in January 2021. Buyers for real estate transactions for February 2021 include: local buyers have hit a new low at 17%, the Front Range demographic at 48% and 35% are out of state buyers with 0% International. There is a new graph included showing demographic trends through 2013 on page 17.
  • Land Title New Development Summary: Page 18 shows all the new construction by month. There were 14 in February compared to 7 in January 2021.

Click the link below to access the full report. Please don't hesitate to contact me with any additional questions.

CLICK HERE

March 13, 2021

Market Statistics Feb 2021

Breckenridge Marker Snapshot March 2021 single family homes

 

Breckenridge Market Snapshot March 2021 condos and townhomes

March 11, 2021

Low inventory, prices rising, the tale of Denver and Mountain Towns

The last couple of months have definitely been interesting in the real estate market. Capital is flowing to markets where perceived value can be gained and desirability is high. The reality of finite resources is playing out daily in the Summit County region. As always, long term plans afford us insulation to the shorter term variables that many of us are trying to interpret. 

 

Interesting post by Glen Weinberg. Read below. 

What a year Covid has brought to Colorado real estate.  From Denver to the resort communities, inventory has plummeted while prices have soared.  What caused this huge jump in prices?  Will the inventory increase in Denver and other markets?  Where do we go from here on prices?  What will cause demand to ultimately drop in Colorado real estate?  Are prices poised for a fall?

What was in the recent Colorado Sales data?

2020 was one for the record books with prices soaring throughout Colorado.  Prices soared throughout the front range, the resort communities, and everywhere in between.

I was floored to see the changes from January 2020 to 2021 in the Denver metro area:

  • Average sales price now 689k, up 28%
  • Percent of list price received: 101%
  • Months Supply of inventory: .3, down 73%
  • More stats from the Colorado Association of Realtors

The same trends are happening in the mountain communities.  Here are some statistics from Summit County, home to Breckenridge, Keystone, Frisco, Silverthorne, and Copper Mountain

  • Average sales price now 1.3m, up 51%
  • Percent of list price received: 100%
  • Months Supply of inventory 1.3, down 68%
  • More Summit County Statistics

What caused the huge jump in prices?

  • Inventory: There is limited inventory in the desirable markets
  • Desirable areas: People have migrated from large coastal cities to Denver for quality of life and considerably less density than many other cities
  • Build Costs: Lumber alone is up 40% this year due to demand and there is a shortage of skilled labor both are adding to skyrocketing build costs
  • Limited Available land: In Denver and the resort communities there is basically nowhere left to build which further limits inventory.

Will inventory recover to more normal levels?

Unfortunately,no.  Build costs will continue to rise due to material and labor costs and basically no land availability to make a meaningful dent in the supply of house.  Furthermore, increased energy efficiency requirements that greatly increase build costs are being implemented in many counties from Denver to Summit county.  Look for inventory to remain tight for the foreseeable future.

Where do we go from here on prices?

With no inventory coming online anytime soon and demand staying constant, there is only one way for prices to go, up further.  Look for prices to continue to increase due to the severe industry constraints.  I don’t see any factors that will change the inventory or demand picture anytime soon so prices will continue their upward trajectory.

Summary

Although prices will continue to go up in the near term, over the long term we are reaching a tipping point where the prices themselves are the limiting factor of future demand.  For example, as prices continue in Summit county, at some point you eliminate demand if prices of the average home rises to 1.5m or whatever that number is.

Denver is somewhere near the tipping point as well, with an average sales price of 700k, very soon demand will be curtailed as there are less people that can afford a 700k home.  With prices rising so rapidly in Denver and the resort markets, demand will soon be curtailed as buyers get priced out which should bring these markets back to more normal rates of historical appreciation (less than 5% a year).