As 2023 draws to a close, it is interesting to see how the market has fared. Here are some year-to-date indicators to start with;
- Market Snapshot for YTD 2023 vs Full Year 2022:
Single Family -1%,
Vacant Land -1%
Median Indicators for;
Single Family +1%
Multi- Family +11%
Vacant Land -2%
- Market Analysis % Change YTD October 2023:
Monetary volume in October 2023 was up 4% from October 2022.
Transactions were up 2% from October 2022.
YTD 2023, monetary volume is pacing 18% down, transactions 14% down YTD from 2022.
- Average Price History by Type YTD 2023:
Average price for residential;
Single Family $2,030,400
Vacant Land: $662,527
- Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison 2023-2022-2021:
YTD 2023, there were 1018 transactions with $1,351,400,710 gross monetary volume, with 529 properties selling for over $1M.
YTD 2022, there were 1194 transactions with $1,584,487,607 gross $ volume with 582 properties selling for over $1M.
YTD 2021, there were 2012 transactions with $2,231,688,763 gross $ volume with 728 properties selling for over $1M.
The main takeaway from this is that compared to 2022, multi-family properties are performing well. This is in large part due to the fact that they have not been affected too severely by the Short-Term Rental (STR) license restrictions that have been introduced countywide in Summit County. Whilst you would image that higher interest rates would have had downward pressure on this sector, it has been a long time since positive cash flow could be achieved in our market based on an 80/20 loan to value split and as such, buyers are coming with higher levels of cash, so interest rates are not overbearing.
On the whole, single-family homes have been pretty static price wise. With luxury homes performing better than mid-tier homes that have been affected more by the STR licensing.
It is no real surprise that dollar market volume is down 40% and number of transactions is down 28% since the peak of the post covid surge. The difference in these two % points does illustrate that price points have been in general resilient in our market.
Looking forward to 2024
Increasingly the notion of a ‘soft landing’ is looking more and more likely. Inflation rates are closer to the Fed’s target of 2% and recent indicators are showing a cooling in the employment market. With the likelihood of interest rates being maintained at their current levels for the first half of 2024 and potentially dropping in the second half of 2024, along with plenty of liquidity in the economy, my sense is that 2024 will mimic much of 2023 with pricing holding up, inventory remaining low and transactions at a similar level. Look for properties to take longer to sell and buyers to be discerning with where they target. A normalized market that feels similar to 2019 than the rampant market of 2020 and 2021.