As 2023 draws to a close, it is interesting to see how the market has fared. Here are some year-to-date indicators to start with;

• Market Snapshot for YTD 2023 vs Full Year 2022:  
  Average Indicators;
  Single Family -1%,
  Multi-Family +6%
  Vacant Land -1%
  
  Median Indicators for; 
  Single Family +1%
  Multi- Family +11%
  Vacant Land -2%
  
  
• Market Analysis % Change YTD October 2023: 
  Monetary volume in October 2023 was up 4% from October 2022.
  Transactions were up 2% from October 2022. 
  YTD 2023, monetary volume is pacing 18% down, transactions 14% down YTD from 2022. 
  
  
• Average Price History by Type YTD 2023: 
  Average price for residential;
  Single Family $2,030,400
  Multi-family: $957,617
  Vacant Land: $662,527
  
  
• Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison 2023-2022-2021: 
  YTD 2023, there were 1018 transactions with $1,351,400,710 gross monetary volume, with 529 properties selling for over $1M.
  YTD 2022, there were 1194 transactions with $1,584,487,607 gross $ volume with 582 properties selling for over $1M.
  YTD 2021, there were 2012 transactions with $2,231,688,763 gross $ volume with 728 properties selling for over $1M.

The main takeaway from this is that compared to 2022, multi-family properties are performing well. This is in large part due to the fact that they have not been affected too severely by the Short-Term Rental (STR) license restrictions that have been introduced countywide in Summit County. Whilst you would image that higher interest rates would have had downward pressure on this sector, it has been a long time since positive cash flow could be achieved in our market based on an 80/20 loan to value split and as such, buyers are coming with higher levels of cash, so interest rates are not overbearing.

On the whole, single-family homes have been pretty static price wise. With luxury homes performing better than mid-tier homes that have been affected more by the STR licensing.

It is no real surprise that dollar market volume is down 40% and number of transactions is down 28% since the peak of the post covid surge. The difference in these two % points does illustrate that price points have been in general resilient in our market.

Looking forward to 2024

Increasingly the notion of a ‘soft landing’ is looking more and more likely. Inflation rates are closer to the Fed’s target of 2% and recent indicators are showing a cooling in the employment market. With the likelihood of interest rates being maintained at their current levels for the first half of 2024 and potentially dropping in the second half of 2024, along with plenty of liquidity in the economy, my sense is that 2024 will mimic much of 2023 with pricing holding up, inventory remaining low and transactions at a similar level. Look for properties to take longer to sell and buyers to be discerning with where they target. A normalized market that feels similar to 2019 than the rampant market of 2020 and 2021.

August 2023 continued the trend of increased transactions and gross volume across Summit County.

• Market Analysis by Area for August 2023: There were a total of 179 transactions and $207,167,239 in monetary volume. The average transaction price for all 18 reported areas, plus Deed Restricted transactions, was $1,233,456, the average residential price was $1,323,501 and the average residential PSF was $793.

• Market Analysis by Area 2022 (8 Months) YTD:  There were a total of 974 transactions with $1,120,997,223 monetary volume. The average transaction price was $1,222,720, the average residential price was $1,319,515 and the average residential PPSF was $791.

• Market Snapshot for YTD 2023 vs Full Year 2022:  Average Indicators for $: Single Family -1%, Multi- Family +5% and Vacant Land -1%. Median Indicators for Single Family +1%, Multi- Family +10% and Vacant Land -7%.

• Market Analysis % Change YTD August 2023:  Monetary volume in August 2023 was down 5% from August 2022. Transactions were down 8% from August 2022.  YTD 2023, monetary volume is pacing 27% down and 18% down with transactions from YTD 2022. 

• Residential Cost Analysis:  Residential volume in August had 140 transactions with $185,290,106 gross volume. There were 71 properties that sold for $1M and above in August.  There were 48 Single Family, 92 Multi-Family and 7 Vacant Land transactions in August.  

• Average Price History by Type YTD 2023: Average price for residential Single Family: $2,038,006, Multi- Family: $941,051 and Vacant Land: $656,152. 

• Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison  2023-2022-2021:  YTD 2023, there were 742 transactions with $979,080,267 gross monetary volume with 377 properties selling for over $1M. YTD 2022, there were 922 transactions with $1,233,026,704 gross $ volume with 465 properties selling for over $1M. YTD 2021, there were 1512 transactions with $1,623,212,899 gross $ volume with 528 properties selling for over $1M.

• Top Lender Analysis August 2023: There were a total of 291 loans, 105 loans related to sales, 55 REFI's and 131 timeshare loans in August with 41% of real estate deals closing with cash.

• Foreclosure Update:  There were 11 foreclosure actions in August, compared to 3 in August 2022, YTD there have been a total of 47 foreclosures actions, 38 being timeshares.

• Purchaser Profile Abstract:  New unit sales were at 12 in August compared to 13 in July.  There were 76 upper-end sales in August compared to 67 in July 2023.  Our buyers for real estate transactions for YTD 2023: Local buyers 29%, Front Range demographic at 36% and 34% were out of state buyers with 1% International. 

•

Please note that Land Title data comes from actual recorded transactions at the County Clerk and Recorder’s Office for that particular month. The information is not directly related to MLS data. The data is an unofficial tabulation of Summit County Records that are believed to be reasonably accurate.

Below are details about Summit County for June, as well as Q2 2023. 

• Market Analysis by Area for June 2023: There were a total of 128 transactions and $141,899,800 in monetary volume. The average transaction price for all 18 reported areas, plus Deed Restricted transactions, was $1,171,322, the average residential price was $1,260,669 and the average residential PSF was $795.

• Market Analysis by Area 2022 (6 Months 2nd Quarter) YTD:  There were a total of 649 transactions with $744,874,039 monetary volume. The average transaction price was $1,213,122, the average residential price was $1,315,607 and the average residential PPSF was $788.

• Market Snapshot for YTD 2023 2nd Q 2 vs Full Year 2022:  Average Indicators for $: Single Family -3%, Multi- Family +5% and Vacant Land -14%. Median Indicators for Single Family -2%, Multi- Family +9% and Vacant Land -17%.

• Market Analysis % Change YTD June2023 2nd Q:  Monetary volume in June 2023 was down 25% from June 2022. Transactions were down 20% from June 2022.  YTD 2023, monetary volume is pacing 34% down and 25% down with transactions from YTD 2022. 

Exploring the Winter Wonderlands of Breckenridge, Keystone, Copper Mountain and A-Basin

Introduction:

Nestled in the heart of the Colorado Rockies, Summit County is a winter wonderland for skiers and snowboarders alike. With its picturesque landscapes, abundant snowfall, and world-class ski resorts, this region attracts snow enthusiasts from all around the globe. Boasting a delightful blend of charming alpine towns and exhilarating mountain terrains, Summit County offers an unparalleled winter sports experience. In this article, we will take a closer look at four of the most renowned ski resorts in Summit County: Breckenridge, Keystone, Copper Mountain, and Arapahoe Basin.

Below is a recap from the first quarter of 2023:

• Market Analysis by Area for March 2023: There were a total of 122 transactions and $128,782,372 in monetary volume. The average transaction price for all 18 reported areas, plus Deed Restricted transactions, was $1,144,193, the average residential price was $1,332,850 and the average residential PSF was $712.

• Market Analysis by Area 2022 (3 Months) YTD:  There are a total of 277 transactions with $316,291,267 monetary volume. The average transaction price was $1,212,404, the average residential price was $1,340,757 and the average residential PPSF was $758.

• Market Snapshot for YTD 2023 vs Full Year 2022:  Average Indicators for $: Single Family -1%, Multi- Family +3% and Vacant Land -29%. Median Indicators for Single Family -9%, Multi- Family +6% and Vacant Land -22%.

• Market Analysis % Change YTD March 2023:  Monetary volume in March 2023 was down 32% from March 2022. Transactions were down 26% from March 2022.  YTD 2023, monetary volume is pacing 33% down and 30% down with transactions from YTD 2022. * $ and transactions are pacing at 2019-18-17 levels, which were considered "normal" March real estate trends.

• Residential Cost Analysis:  Residential volume in March saw 83 transactions with $110,626,550 gross volume. There were 43 properties that sold for $1M and above in March.  There were 36 Single Family, 47 Multi-Family and 13 Vacant Land transactions in March.  

• Average Price History by Type YTD 2023: Average price for residential Single Family: $2,039,819, Multi- Family: $922,380 and Vacant Land: $471,425. 

• Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison  2023-2022-2021:  YTD 2023, there were 211 transactions with $282,899,824 gross $ volume with 98 properties selling for over $1M. YTD 2022, there were 308 transactions with $416,484,430 gross $ volume with 145 properties selling for over $1M. YTD 2021, there were 441 transactions with $455,716,217 gross $ volume with 130 properties selling for over $1M.

• Top Lender Analysis March 2023: There were at total of 272 loans, 86 loans related to sales, 51 REFI's and 135 timeshare loans in March, with 30% of real estate deals closing with cash.

• Foreclosure Update:  Up in March 2023 with 10 compared to last March 2022 with 2, YTD 2023 there have been a total of 12 (8 Timeshares and 4 Fee Simple).

• Purchaser Profile Abstract:  New unit sales were 14 in March compared to 16 in February 2023.  There were 44 upper end sales in March compared to 35 in February 2023.  Our buyers for real estate transactions for YTD 2023: Local buyers only at 29%, Front Range demographic at 36% and 35% are out of state buyers with 0% International. 

Click here for the full report

Please note that Land Title data comes from actual recorded transactions at the County Clerk and Recorder’s Office for that particular month. The information is not directly related to MLS data. The data is an unofficial tabulation of Summit County Records that are believed to be reasonably accurate. 

Data Source - Land Title Guarantee Company

Having a broker who understands the STR landscape is critical, here is my status update on Short Term Rentals in Summit County.

BRECKENRIDGE

• Town limits divided into 4 zones

• Resort zone – unlimited licenses available

• Zone 1 – 400+ licenses available

• Zone 2 – projected that it will be 10+ years before new license issued

• Zone 3 – projected that it will be 10+ years before new license issued

FRISCO

FRISCO

• Town of Frisco approved a 25% cap on Short-term rental licenses within the Town.

• On February 23, 2023, Frisco has reached its short-term rental license cap and is now
implementing a waitlist for those wishing to apply for a short-term rental license.


SILVERTHORNE

• Area 2 - Downtown core allows 50% of inventory to have a license – small focused area

• Area 1 - Remaining residential area subject to new 10% cap – circa 400 licenses available
– begs the question of why they had to impose legislation – “because everyone else is??”

• The Town believes there is plenty of room for growth in short-term rental permits. Under
the proposal, there will be 740 permits available within the whole town, about 20% of approved residential units.

DILLON

• Require a license. Currently no limits of caps

TOWN OF BLUE RIVER

• Currently STR’s make up 23% of all inventory

• Town council has stated that they will review when STR’s make up 28%+


UNINCORPORATED SUMMIT COUNTY

• Resort zone that includes Keystone Ski Resort and Copper Mountain Ski Resort, as well as a small parcel next to Breckenridge Ski Resort – Unlimited Licenses available. Keystone Ranch HOA just voted to prohibit STRs from June 2024

• The rest of the county is split into districts

• The significant one being the Upper Blue River Basin – High School to Hoosier Pass
This area is currently at 25% of all inventory having a STR license.
New ordinance will set cap at 12.5% - 18% - TBD
There are some exceptions for homeowners renting out their own houses
There is also discussion to set a cap of 26 total rental being allowed per calendar year instead of a nightly cap of 135 nights

• ‘Peak 7’ neighborhood homeowners have mobilized and got the attention of the count planning commission. The are recommended to the County Commissioners to include this area in the Resort Zone – allowing unlimited licenses. This recommendation was not taken up.

• Some owners in the Peak 7 neighborhood have now engaged a law firm to litigate against Summit County – they are currently looking to raise funds from County residents.


CURRENT METRICS HAVE THE COUNTY TRACKING 2019 DATA WHICH MOST IDENTIFY AS A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR NON COVID AFFECTED DATA.

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