Waiting for a Slice of Summit: Navigating the New STR Waitlist in the Upper Blue Basin

You're likely aware that Summit County has officially rolled out the STR (Short‑Term Rental) waitlist service, and the Upper Blue Basin is one of the first to go live. You can now view and apply through the official county page here: [STR Waitlist – Summit County.

What’s the Situation?

License Caps & Current Numbers

• Summit County has capped Type II STR licenses (i.e., for short-term rentals) by basin.

• In the Upper Blue Basin, the cap is 590 licenses, but as of January 2025, 610 were already issued—meaning the cap is currently exceeded.

Those facts confirm that no new licenses are available until the numbers fall below the cap—from attrition: sales, non-renewals, etc.

Waitlist Timeline

• The waitlist officially opened at 8 AM MT on July 22, 2025 for both Upper and Lower Blue Basins.

• And here’s what the STR Waitlist page says: only property owners can apply, there’s a nonrefundable $75 fee, and there's no guarantee of receiving a license.

Crunching the Numbers: What Buyers Should Know

Let’s break down the implications using the figures you shared—and validate them based on what we know:

• There are roughly 3,800 housing units in Upper Blue.

• The official cap is 590, which is about 15.5% of total units—this aligns exactly with your calculation (590 ÷ 3,800 ≈ 15.5%).

• Over the past 365 days, there have been 289 unit sales—a handy proxy for annual turnover.

• Applying the 15.5% ratio to those sales gives an estimate of about 45 STR licenses freed per year (289 × 0.155 ≈ 44.8). This matches your number.

You also noted that the basin is about 15 licenses over the cap, which our data confirms (610 existing vs. 590 cap = +20). That extra buffer helps with turnover—but even then:

• With approximately 82 people on the waitlist right now (as per your report), at the rate of ~45 vacated licenses per year, it would take around 2 years for everyone to move off the list—based on simple rule-of-thumb math.

Enhancing Buyer Strategy: What This Means in Practice

If you're advising clients eyeing a property with STR potential in the Upper Blue Basin, here’s what to convey:

1. Understand the Wait
   A 2-year estimated wait is not hypothetical—it’s grounded in current license counts and local real estate activity.

2. Know Your Agency
   Only property owners can apply for the STR waitlist—not agents, not property managers.

3. Plan for Fees and Risk
   The application requires a $75 non-refundable fee. And being on the waitlist doesn't guarantee a license—it’s entirely contingent on attrition and waitlist priority.

4. Monitor Closely
   Even minor changes—like higher-than-expected turnover or renewals not being submitted—can shift the timeline. Having real-time updates is vital.

5. Evaluate Alternatives
   If Short-Term Rentals are a core part of the plan, consider investing in a property in Resort Overlay Zones (towns like Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Keystone), where STR licenses aren’t capped

The first half of 2025 has ushered in a new era of opportunity for both buyers and sellers in Summit County. With inventory climbing and buyer activity gradually increasing, the market has shifted to a more balanced playing field. While prices have stayed relatively flat—or dipped slightly in certain areas—this shift offers buyers more leverage and gives sellers a clear roadmap for success: price strategically, present flawlessly, and act proactively.

Inventory Trends: A Surge in Selection

Rising inventory levels are giving buyers more confidence and negotiating power. Here's how current residential listings compare year-over-year and to pre-boom averages:

Sales Activity: Growth Varies by Area

Sales volume across Summit County reflects a nuanced landscape. Areas with short-term rental (STR) opportunities continue to drive higher sales, while entry-level markets are feeling the pinch from rising HOA dues, insurance, and interest rates.

Year-to-Date Sales Change by Area (2025 vs. 2024)

Luxury Market Snapshot: Pricing Precision is Key

The high-end market remains active—but extremely sensitive to pricing and presentation. Sellers in the luxury segment must lead with value, uniqueness, or turnkey readiness.

Luxury Market Performance – Past 180 Days (All Summit County)

Insight: Newer builds and distinct homes that are priced correctly are attracting the most interest. Overpriced listings are sitting, while well-marketed homes are moving.

Seller Strategy: Be Proactive, Not Reactive

With inventory at multi-year highs, competition is fierce. Sellers must shift their mindset to meet market realities. Here's how to stand out:

• Price competitively based on current trends, not past peaks

• Maximize presentation through curb appeal, staging, and repairs

• Consider a pre-listing inspection to reduce friction in escrow

• Market strategically with professional photography, 3D tours, and targeted exposure

Well-prepared homes priced at or just under market value are generating the most showings and strongest offers.

Brokerage Spotlight: Breckenridge Associates Real Estate Holds the Top Spot

Amid this evolving landscape, one firm continues to lead the charge in Breckenridge and across Summit County.

Breckenridge Associates Real Estate – 2025 Mid-Year Achievements

Conclusion: A Market Full of Opportunity

Whether you’re considering buying your first mountain home, trading up to luxury, or preparing to list, the Summit County real estate market in 2025 presents opportunity—with strategy. If you'd like a personalized plan to buy or sell in today's market, let’s connect and create a tailored approach to meet your goals.

Source - Altitude MLS

Source - Altitude MLS

It is interesting to see how sales in the luxury end of the Breckenridge real estate market have performed over the past 2 years. Sales for single family homes in Breckenridge, that were listed over $4m, doubled in 2024 compared to 2023. By contrast, sales of homes in the $1m to $4m range remained pretty static, with number of sales and sales price showing minor adjustments in 2024 vs 2023.

My sense is that with the ongoing strength of equities over the past 2 years, buyers in the $4m+ range have been pulling funds out of the stock market and diversifying into real estate. Buyers in the $1m to $4m range are more sensitive to interest rates and also the ability to short term rent their second homes. With both of these factors offering some resistance in the market, growth in the 'mid-level' sector has been muted. 

Independence Townhomes: The Finale Development

Independence Townhomes beautifully blend the luxury of the Colorado mountain lifestyle with the unique charm of Breckenridge. These homes offer the perfect balance of a prime in-town location and exclusive slopeside amenities. Designed for modern living, the residences feature 3- to 5-bedroom layouts ranging from 2,400 to 3,500 square feet, complete with spacious 2-car garages and expansive outdoor areas that showcase breathtaking views. Each townhome is crafted with premium natural materials, including custom Italian kitchen cabinetry, Brazilian quartzite countertops, and European hardwood floors. Kitchens are outfitted with Thermador appliances, and air conditioning ensures year-round comfort.

Slopeside Location, Downtown Living

Positioned between Breckenridge Ski Resort and the vibrant downtown, Independence Townhomes provide unmatched convenience and luxury. Residents enjoy the fastest in-town access to the BreckConnect Gondola and Main Street. The townhomes offer a true "ski-in/ski-out" experience during winter and direct access to the Pence Miller Trail and Peaks Trail network in the summer.

Owner Amenities

Independence Townhomes include exclusive access to world-class amenities:

• Private slopeside ski/snowboard locker
• Indoor/outdoor aquatics (pools, hot tubs, waterfalls, kiddie pool with water slide)
• Family entertainment center and private movie theater
• Ice skating rink and escape rooms
• Full-service concierge and fitness center
• Infinity Spa with signature treatments and The Grotto (hot tub, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna)
• On-site dining: Robbie's Tavern, Grand Lobby Bar, Ullr Café, and Elev8 Rooftop Lounge

Discover Your Breckenridge Dream Home

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Check out the listings here

Breckenridge, Colorado, is renowned for its picturesque mountain views, vibrant town atmosphere, and world-class skiing opportunities. For ski enthusiasts, the ultimate convenience lies in ski-in, ski-out neighborhoods, offering direct access to the slopes. These neighborhoods not only provide unparalleled proximity to Breckenridge Ski Resort but also deliver a lifestyle centered around the mountains. Here’s an overview of some notable ski-in, ski-out neighborhoods and the benefits of living this close to the slopes.

Prominent Ski-In, Ski-Out Neighborhoods in Breckenridge

1. Peak 8 Neighborhood
• Located at the base of Peak 8, this area is home to some of the most luxurious accommodations and homes. With easy access to the BreckConnect Gondola, residents can glide effortlessly to the slopes or into town.
• Benefits: Unparalleled views, high-end properties, and proximity to family-friendly skiing areas.
2. Peak 9 and Warriors Mark West
• Situated around the base of Peak 9, this area is popular for its easy access to both beginner-friendly and advanced slopes. The Warriors Mark West neighborhood also offers a blend of seclusion and convenience.
• Benefits: Variety of terrain options and easy access to the resort's base areas.
3. Four O’Clock Subdivision
• Named after the iconic Four O’Clock Run, this neighborhood provides a true ski-in experience with homes and condos directly adjacent to the slopes.
• Benefits: Convenient mid-mountain location, close proximity to town, and ideal for après-ski activities.
4. Shock Hill
• An exclusive community located near the BreckConnect Gondola’s mid-station. Shock Hill boasts luxury homes with immediate gondola and Nordic ski trail access.
• Benefits: Quiet, private atmosphere with direct links to both downhill and Nordic skiing.

Benefits of Ski-In, Ski-Out Living

1. Convenience and Time-Saving Living just steps from the slopes eliminates the need for shuttles, parking, or long commutes. Whether you're an early riser chasing fresh powder or prefer leisurely afternoon runs, ski-in, ski-out access maximizes your time on the mountain.
2. Enhanced Lifestyle Proximity to the slopes means an immersive mountain lifestyle. Morning ski sessions can be followed by a lunch break at home, and evening walks through snow-draped trails become a regular occurrence.
3. High Rental Income Potential Properties in ski-in, ski-out neighborhoods often yield higher rental returns due to their coveted location. Many visitors prioritize convenience, making these homes popular choices for vacationers.
4. Increased Property Value The desirability of ski-in, ski-out properties often leads to higher resale values. Investing in such a location ensures long-term appreciation in a competitive market.
5. Year-Round Activities While winter skiing is the main attraction, these neighborhoods also offer access to hiking, mountain biking, and scenic gondola rides in the warmer months.

Conclusion

Ski-in, ski-out neighborhoods in Breckenridge embody the perfect blend of luxury, adventure, and convenience. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence, a vacation home, or an investment property, these areas provide a lifestyle centered on mountain living. With direct access to world-class slopes and an abundance of year-round recreational opportunities, living this close to the ski resort is a dream for outdoor enthusiasts and families alike.

2024 has been an interesting year for Real Estate. Whilst we have seen some significant changes in the way that our compensation is treated, (and I have recently posted a buyer representation post here), the reality is that whilst the framing of the matter has changed, the fundamental trends of compensation and negotiation remain. The higher level of transparency can only be a good thing in my opinion.

What I really want to discuss is the increased strength and performance of the luxury market in 2024. Is this the expansion of the $4m+ market in more fundamental terms? Or is this simply a shorter-term reaction to immediate influences?

To start with let us look at some of the metrics that support the need for discussion.

Breckenridge Single Family Homes – last 6 months.

$4m+

# of sold / pending properties -                       32

# of active listings -                                         35

Days on market -                                            88

% sold of list price -                                        94.58%

Pending and Sold properties represent similar numbers as active listings. Equates to approx. 6 months’ supply, which is very low for this high dollar market.

$1m - $4m

# of sold / pending properties -                       79

# of active listings -                                         75

Days on market -                                            56

% sold of list price -                                        95.74%

Pending and Sold properties represent similar numbers as active listings. Equates to 6 approx. months’ supply. It is interesting to see that both these segments show strong parity.

Why is the high end of our market performing as strongly as it is? I think you can point to several factors.

1.      People are pulling money out of the stock market and investing in a longer-term asset.

2.      With it being an election year, people are hedging against more volatile asset classes.

3.     Buyers in this category are less affected by the conventional lending system as well as the recent restrictions imposed on short term rentals.

4.     Finally, and this is more a comment for debate and longer-term analysis…. Is Breckenridge breaking through a perceived luxury ceiling and aligning itself more with other very high value markets such as Vail, Telluride and Aspen? Breckenridge has always represented value when compared to these markets. Now that it has an inventory of luxury homes and numerous fine dining options – there is a logic to the argument that the market is becoming more exclusive.

It will be interesting to see how the real estate responds in the New Year, once the election has fully settled. If you would like any more details or statistics on a particular segment of the market, please do not hesitate to ask.

I hope you are having a chance to enjoy the summer and it is hard to believe we are almost into August! I think that some of the time warp is a result of the summer real estate season being the first since 2020 that has seen a noticeable shift in the buyer and seller dynamic.

Whereas the past number of years has been characterized by low inventory and short days on market,the summer of 2024 has been one of increasing inventory and lower transaction metrics. Monetary volume in June 2024 was down 10% and transactions were down 20% from June 2023.  Interesting to note that YTD 2024, transactions were up 4% and $ was up 26% from YTD 2023. Active listings in July were 1,390 in 2024 compared to 1,147 in 2024

Active listings in Summit County – Number by month

Whilst hindsight is always the precise definition for such trends, it is worth some thoughts on why the market is recalibrating.

Firstly, most of us realized that with the frantic pace of sales in recent years, there would always be a hangover from the party, when the stock of buyers would be depleted as they had already made their purchases and activity would soften.

Sellers have been keen to present their properties for sale this summer. Inventory is up. Pricing has been robust and this in large part is fueled by the seller ‘community’ being very healthy, namely benefiting from high equity levels and low interest rates. Put shortly, many are not feeling any ‘pain’.

Buyers, by contrast, are in a stronger position than they have been for several years, and with this being an election year, may well be holding tight on the big-ticket purchase. They also are hearing noises of interest rates coming down with recent favorable inflation news and if looking at a purchase with a loan, might be waiting for the rates to drop.

The combination of this push and pull between sellers and buyers has resulted in the number of transactions being lower this summer than last.

All in all, my sense is that we are getting back to a more normalized market and whilst the shift may feel significant, It is worth moderating too much interpretation as we must remember the peak from where we are transferring.

Breckenridge Single Family Homes:  Values are up by 16.59% year-to-date (YTD) compared to 2023, with an average sold price of $2,777,979. Properties are selling at 96% of the list price, averaging $791 per square foot (SF), and spending 72 days on the market (DOM).

Breckenridge Townhomes:  The market has slightly leveled off, down by 1.82% YTD compared to 2023. The average sold price is $1,603,098, selling at 99% of the list price, $855/SF, with an average of 52 DOM. This slight decrease is attributed to the mix of older townhomes being sold and fewer new townhomes available in 2024.

Breckenridge Condominiums:  Values are up by 10.00% YTD compared to 2023, with an average sold price of $988,853. Condos are selling at 97% of the list price, averaging $1,068/SF, and spending 39 DOM.

If you would like to have a chat about a particular home / neighborhood or the market in more general terms, ping me a note  by email or call me at 1-970-389-1654

On this blustery day in the mountains, I wanted to take a moment to help explain the recent NAR Settlement – Real Estate Commissions

No doubt there are many of you have been reading about the class action lawsuit settlement between the National Assoc of Realtors and the plaintiffs regarding a commission dispute. 

The main premise of the suit is that the plaintiffs accused realtors and real estate agents of ‘price fixing’ commissions. The reality of the situation is that commissions have always been fully negotiable. In the perfect scenario an agent will have discussed the commission to sell the house and that this commission is split with the buyer’s agent. Colorado listing agreements offer sections to fill in both the gross commission and what the split between the two agents will be. All parties then are required to sign (and hopefully have read) the listing agreement.

So where did the issue arise from? My belief is that there have been documented cases (voicemails, video calls etc.) of brokers saying something along the lines of…… “if they are not paying X% commission, then I won’t show the property” – This is against the code of ethics and basically very bad business. Steering clients is not allowed. Whilst not commission fixing, enough examples of this allowed the plaintiffs to make a case worthy of a settlement if not one that would have held up in court. It is worth noting that the NAR did not admit to any wrongdoing.

The reality is that because of these steering situations, the settlement was agreed upon with certain provisions. The settlement still must be ratified by the DOJ – most likely either July or August this summer.

The two main outcomes are as follows:

1. There can be no mention of the co-op commission that a seller is offering to the buyer agent in the MLS. The offer of a co-op commission can however be publicized on the brokerage website or non-MLS literature, or a buyer’s agent can ask the listing broker directly if the seller is offering a commission. 

2. Buyer’s agents are required to sign up all buyers to a Buyers Agency agreement prior to showing any property. This agreement requires the compensation being paid to the buyer’s agent to be clearly cited.

So, what does this mean for the consumer? i.e., the seller and buyer. 

I think there will be more transparency in the process for all agents and consumers. For experienced agents who have always used buyer agency agreements and explained commission levels to sellers, this will not be a huge departure from the norm. For some it will no doubt be a change.

The seller can still offer a co-op commission to the buyer’s side.
The seller can offer seller concessions to the buyer to cover closing costs etc. 
The buyer’s agent can still ask if the seller is offering a co-op commission.

There has been some discussion or indeed hope that this will reduce the price of housing. My professional opinion is that this will not be the case. With inventory levels low and sellers still feeling in a position of strength, I do not think they will drop their pricing. This is not to say that more systemic changes in the economy or interest rates won’t still have an impact on pricing.

I think that there is still a very good argument for sellers to offer a co-op commission. 

1. It ensures that both sides of the transaction are represented by qualified professionals who are incentivized to engage in the successful closing of the contract.
2. It ensures that the buyer does not have to use funds ear marked for a down payment on a home to pay their buyer’s agent. 
3. Having unrepresented buyers or buyers being represented by the listing agent can expose the contract to bias and ensuing legal matters. 

Ultimately, the onus is on us as real estate brokers to demonstrate our value, the value in showing and identifying suitable properties, the value in writing up a winning contract and the skill of negotiation, and finally the often-misunderstood value of the closing process. Namely all the details, inspections, paperwork etc. that ensures a smooth transaction. Details that often get done without the buyer or seller fully appreciating the behind the scenes work that goes on.

If you would like to have a chat about this, do not hesitate to give me a call.

1^st Quarter Real Estate market snapshot

YTD All Summit County

There were a total of 303 transactions and $380,439,483 in monetary volume.

The average transaction price for all 18 areas, plus deed restricted transactions, was $1,295,284,

The average residential transaction price was $1,424,366

The average residential Price / sqft was $829. 

Market Snapshot for YTD 2024 vs YTD 2023:  

Average indicators for $ amount:

Single Family +18%

Multi- Family +6%

Vacant Land -31% (there has been very little activity)

Median indicators for $ amount:

Single Family +21%

Multi- Family -7%

Vacant Land -48%.

Comparative Historical Cost Analysis Comparison YTD 2024-2023-2022: 

In 2024, there were 235 transactions with $334,725,920 gross monetary volume with 127 properties selling for over $1M.

In 2023, there were 211 transactions with $282,899,824 gross $ volume with 98 properties selling for over $1M.

In 2022, there were 308 transactions with $416,484,430 gross $ volume with 145 properties selling for over $1M.

FULL REPORT